Blog Posts

Friday, January 16, 2015

[Investment] Why mergers fail to unlock the expected synergy?

The domestic financial industry has been changing rapidly. Given the more competitive financial landscape arising from greater globalisation and liberalisation, it is vital for banking institutions to respond promptly to enhance capacity and capabilities. With the recent the proposed three-way merger acquisition of RHB-CIMB-MBSB (mega bank wannabe), it just inspired me to blog on a general topic on merger acquisition. The three-way merger had been relatively complicated with lots of drama i.e (1.) starting of with everyone wondering who is the actual acquirer along with plot twist behind the deal (RHB or CIMB?); then (2.) the voting issue of EPF coupled with the demanding Abu Dhabi state fund (Aabar Investment) going against the transaction; (3.) and the concern on valuation as the stocks market heading south; (4.) lastly the merger was finally aborted (what a relief?).
Of course the shares price for three of the companies had been roller coaster but I’m not going to blog about the merger implication on the shares performance at the moment. The rationales behind the mega merger were justified by (1.) valuation creation through synergy 1+1+1=??? (a common argument for all mergers) (2.) earnings accretive (3.) being largest Islamic bank to drive growth (4.) being top 5 largest bank in the region of ASEAN. However, channel check on the ground, most of the employees were not even happy or looking forward for the merger.

Aside from its products innovation and large network distribution, the success of the banking industry also heavily rely on the professional services which people play a key role in the company.  So here's some people issue arose or rather the resistance to change during the transition period that lead to the failure of delivering the expected full value of mergers.

We-they attitudes


  So we used to be fierce competitor and we used to fight but now you expect us to be a happy loving family? After the acquisition has been formally announced, the differences in the two organizational cultures usually lead to competition between employee groups and hostile ‘we-they’ attitudes. Particularly in target company, the employees may have perceived the acquisition as a loss. The merger usually emphasize or even exaggerate the differences in status between employees, the resultant structure is often a constant reminder of who the `winners” and who the `losers’ are. Employees may not know where the new organization is headed and how they fit into the new scheme of things.

Cultural clash


  While the two organizations are still in the transition period, it is common to notice that the number of employees who have been coming to work with workplace concerns and issues has risen dramatically. Most of the complaints surround the culture clash between the two merging companies. It became quite clear that this merger was going to be challenging, given the drastically different cultures of the two organizations. An employee-centric approach to business vs a power culture will make a big difference to way people used to do things i.e. clearly defined position, status, rules and procedures.

Confusion and confusion 


  Despite the fact that mergers and acquisitions look attractive to management and investors, the reality of their execution is that organizations are composed of employees who generally view such organizational changes as a threat. Accordingly, many merger and acquisition deals have inherent retention issues resulting from negative attitudes often felt by employees, including, but not limited to uncertainty about the future organizational direction, feelings of loss of previous organizational culture, uncertainty about personal job security, perceptions of lack of leadership credibility, feelings of confusion due to a lack of communication, survivor guilt due to downsizing of other employees, perceptions of increased job stress and workload.

Lost and found


  In essence, employees from the target company lose trust in their organizations and feel betrayed by leadership. Employees begin to grieve the loss of corporate identity and reminisce about the good old days before the merger. Consequently, in an attempt to regain control over individual job situations, many employees begin to contemplate "jumping ship" as the merger and acquisition is implemented. During the transition period, many of the senior, experienced and qualified professionals may leave due to uncertainty of the post-merger organisational structure of the company and the resistance to change. Following the departure of the head of team and senior management, most of the team members will follow suit leaving to the closest competitors which led to loss of human capital. Not to mention, good staff tend to leave while "bad apples" tend to stay.


As a general rule of thumb, M&A is accepted if the deal is earning accretive. However, people are key assets of a company which go unrecorded. When people leave, they bring along the relationship, network, knowledge, skills and expertise which are irreplacable. When we talk about synergy 1+1=3, have we ever factored in the cost to retain human capital as well as the value loss from human capital (especially in the service related sector)?


Thursday, January 1, 2015

Thoughts for 2014 and Happy New Year 2015

It’s the last day of the year 2014 and I open up the newspaper of  The Edge Financial Daily like every other days. Cover page of the FD really seems saddening as the year ending 2014 for Malaysia has been surrounded with many bad news.

(Source: The Edge Financial Daily - 31st December 2014)

There’s some thoughts that came through my mind from a popular Chinese characters “wei-ji” 危 (crisis) 機 (opportunity), i.e. there is a famous saying: in every crisis, although dangers abound, there is also opportunity.


Since there's every opportunity in every time of danger, so here's a summary of my views after relooking (at the points highlighted by FD) for the year of 2014:- 

危 (time of danger) 機 (time of opportunity)
3 Air Disasters
(MAS MH3070, MAS MH17, Air Asia QZ8501)
The travel insurance market in Malaysia is under-penetrated compared to other countries. These incidents will lead to higher awareness and the increase of demand for air travel insurance.
(Winner: Travel insurance sector)
Worst Floods  Since 1972 Even though insurance company may need to pay out huge claims for the floods, the incident will drive higher pricing for insurance premium. Massive floods in Kelantan also led to loss of infrastructure, homes and cars, there will be need for development and assets replacement.
(Winner: Automotive, Insurance and Construction sector)
Crude Oil Plunges 40% Lower oil price is positive for the household spending leading to higher disposal income and lower inflationary pressure. Also, business with high transportation and energy cost will benefit from lower crude oil price.
(Winner: Airlines, Power, and Construction sector)
Ringgit Depreciate 7% against USD Strengthening USD boost the export industry (with income quoted in USD).
(Winner: Glove producer and Shipping sector)
Bank Negara Foreign Reserves dip 11% There is a need for Government to work on controlling budget deficit. Fundamentals of the economy need to be proven over time and monetary policy stance will remain accommodative.
FBM KLCI fall 5% FBMKLCI has always been  viewed as trading  at a premium of PER compared to regional market. With the recent correction, market weakness essentially offer opportunities to position for the medium term. Also, foreign fund outflow will reduce the volatility of the stocks market.


Wishing all of you a happy and prosperous new year for 2015, 
let’s count our blessings and embrace for better tomorrow.

May you be blessed with health, wealth and happiness.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

[Investment] Crude Oil Price - The million dollar question

5-year and 1 year WTI crude oil prices
(Charting tools by TradingView)

Crude oil price has been falling down and down since July 2014 as there is glut in the oil supply mainly due to:
  1. US shale oil revolution
  2. Libya back to oil production after civil war
  3. Lastly, nobody want to reduce production - OPEC did nothing to support oil price.

As a result, market has turned bearish on the oil&gas counters and net oil exporter countries.

RSI for 5-years and 1-year for WTI crude oil prices broke into lowest indicating strong oversold. 

Million Dollar Question:

Is this the bottom yet? Where will be the floor price? 

When will the oil price rebound? 

At what price level will it normalise?

Thursday, October 2, 2014

[Economics] Where is the world heading? Global economy snapshot (Sept 2014)

Global Overview


(i) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cuts its global growth forecast for both 2014 and 2015 as economy recovery was weak and uneven. It also warned about the risks of rising geopolitical uncertainty (e.g. Russia/Ukraine crisis, ISIS in Syria&Iraq, and protest in Hong Kong) and a financial-market correction.

(ii) The 2015 global economic growth is revised downward to 3.8% for 2015, compared with a July forecast for 4%. The 2015 global growth is cut by 0.2% to 3.8%, whilst 2014 is cut by 0.1% to 3.3%.

(iii) Also, the World Bank lowered its forecasts for growth in developing East Asia this year as China’s expansion moderates and policy makers brace for tighter global monetary conditions. The region is forecast to grow 6.9% in 2014 and 2015, down from 7.1% projected in April. China will expand 7.4% this year and 7.2% next year, compared with 7.6% and 7.5% previously forecast.


USA 


(i) The US economy expanded in the 2Q2014 at the fastest rate since the 4Q2011 as companies stepped up investment and households boosted spending. GDP grew at a 4.6% annualized rate in 2Q2014, up from a previous 1Q2014 of 4.2%.

(ii) US consumer credit increased by US$26.0 billion to US$3.2 trillion in July, which implies that the US consumer confident is improving. With banks are showing a greater willingness to extend credit cards and finance car purchases amid growing demand and rising competition, the accessibility to credit will help spur gains in the housing industry as well with the possibility of accelerating up inflation rate to the desired Fed’s target of 2.0%.

(iii) The Fed indicated improving labor market and rising inflation are likely to create conditions for an initial interest-rate increase in the 1H2015 or later in the year.


Euro-zone


(i) The Euro-zone’s economy stagnated in the 2Q2014 (0.2% in 1Q14) as investment fell by 0.3%. Consumer spending and exports rose, while change in inventories subtracted from GDP. As a result, ECB lowered its 2014 and 2015 GDP forecasts to 0.9% and 1.6% respectively.

(ii) Euro-zone’s inflation also slowed in September to the lowest level in five years, at an annualized rate of 0.3% (August 2014: 0.3%). It is the lowest level of inflation since October 2009, adding to fears of a deflationary spiral. Inflation has been persistently below the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target rate.

(iii) The ECB has introduced measures from negative interest rates and long-term loans to asset purchases to fend off deflation and regenerate growth. On September 4th 2014, ECB announced a further cut of 10 bps to its key interest rate. The benchmark rate was lowered to 0.05%, the deposit rate is now -0.2%, and the marginal lending facility is 0.3%. ECB intends to steer the size of its balance sheet back to the levels seen at the start of 2012, indicating an increase in assets of as much as €1trn (US$1.3trn).

Japan


(i) The Japanese economy contracted 1.7% in the 2Q2014 (1Q2014: 1.5%) as the weaknesses in exports and production strike a note of concern about the strength of the economy. Outbound shipments unexpectedly fell in June, while output slumped the most in more than three years as retail sales dropped, showing its economy struggling to rebound from a sales-tax increase last quarter.

(ii) The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has reaffirmed that the Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace and will continue its accommodative measure, i.e. the asset purchase programme, to support further growth.

(iii) In addition, the BOJ maintained its pledge to increase the monetary base at an annual pace of 60 trillion Yen to 70 trillion Yen.

Malaysia


(i) For the Malaysian economy, exports and private sector activity continue to exhibit strength due to the recovery in the regional demand and supported by stable income growth and favourable labour market conditions. The overall growth momentum is expected to be sustained.

(ii) Malaysian annual inflation rate edged up to 3.3% in August from 3.2% in July mainly driven by higher food prices.  The inflation is expected to be elevated to 3.5% in 2015 in anticipation of GST and subsidy rationalisation.

(iii) Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) raised its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) for the first time in over 3 years by 25 basis points to 3.25% on July 10th 2014 as inflation rate remains above its long-run average. Economists anticipate that the OPR will likely be kept at 3.25% for the rest of the year with a potential rate hike of 25 basis point in the 1H2015.

(Sources: Various countries statistic sites, research reports and news portal)

Contact Me

Name

Email *

Message *