Blog Posts

Monday, July 28, 2014

[Investment] Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) IPO

In tandem with the upcoming IPO of Reach Energy Berhad, a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), this post attempts to address the lack of understanding on SPAC.

What is SPAC

  • Basically, SPAC going for IPO is a shell company with no operation or income generating business raising fund from public to acquire operating companies or assets, known as Qualifying Acquisition (QA). 
  • Below are the comparisons between a SPAC and an existing company going for listing:-

  • Investment in SPAC has higher risk since the performance and financial of the business cannot be evaluated compared to existing company going for IPO. Thus, the key investment theme for SPAC is the experience of its management team to pursue the business strategy and complete QA.
  • Currently, there are only three listed SPACs on Bursa Malaysia which are Hibiscus, Cliq Energy and Sona Petrolium. 
  • According to The Edge (19 Dec 2013), the proposal to list two SPACs in the mining sector i.e Australaysia Resources and Mineral Berhad and Terragalli Resources has been rejected by Securities of Commissions due to the doubt of the returns would commensurate with the risk of investors.

SPAC Structure

  • Investors in SPAC typically buy a unit of the SPAC shares (mother share) and receive a warrant which is only exercisable when the SPAC completed the QA. Both of the SPAC shares and warrant will be traded separately.
  • A SPAC going for listing made up of three types of shareholders which are the management team, pre-IPO investors, and the IPO investors. Note: retail investors/ public are classified under IPO investors.
  • The restriction and entitlement for each type of shareholders are as below:-
(Source: Securities Commissions)

SPAC is a high risk and high return investment. The completion of Qualifying Acquisition which is commercial and financial viable is the key success of a SPAC. However, in the event of a SPAC fails to complete Qualifying Acquisition within 3 years, the SPAC will be liquidated and delisted.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

[Investment] 7-year DanaInfra Retail Sukuk 4.23% - Fixed Income

Good news! Just read the The Edge Financial Daily today, there is a notice of the offering of 7-year 4.23% Danainfra Retail Sukuk to the public. So here is the brief information on the offering:-

 *Click table to enlarge (Source: DanaInfra Nasional)


Who is the Issuer
DanaInfra Nasional Berhad (“DanaInfra”) is a special purpose vehicle established on 3 March 2011 with  the main purpose of undertaking the funding of infrastructure projects assigned by the Government of Malaysia. DanaInfra’s primary role upon its incorporation is to secure and manage the funding for the Klang Valley Mass Rapid Transit – Sg Buloh-Kajang Line (SBK Line).

Sukuk Structure
Basically, a Sukuk is a shariah compliance fixed income bond. Danainfra Retail Sukuk offers 4.23% p.a coupon with tenure of 7 years. Interest/coupon is paid semi-annually and principal will be paid on the maturity date, which is expected to be on  27/08/2021. This investment has relative low risk as it is guaranteed by the Government of Malaysia.

Investment Size
Why did I say it is a good news in the beginning? Fixed income such as government paper and corporate bond are common investment instruments to institutional investors (fund managers) but not the retail investors (public) as it is oftenly traded over-the-counter (OTC) with minimum investment size of  RM1 million. For this Sukuk, it is a good opportunity to the public as it offered exclusively to retail investors with minimum subscription of RM1,000 (equivalent to 10 unit).

Listing
This Sukuk is a Exchange Traded Bonds and Sukuk (ETBS). ETBS are fixed income securities that are listed and traded on the stock market. Thus, investors are able to trade the bond prior to maturity. Price will be determined by market force.

Important Timeline
Opening date for Danainfra Retail Sukuk offering : 21 July 2014
Closing date for Danainfra Retail Sukuk offering : 15 August 2014
Balloting of DanaInfra Retail Sukuk offering 19 August 2014
Listing and commencement of trading : 27 August 2014

Application
You need to have a CDS account to apply for this Sukuk. Application for Danainfra Retail Sukuk is similar to application for IPO shares. It can be done via application form, ATM or Internet Banking.

In the event of over-subscription, the Issuer will conduct a ballot to determine the allocation to retail investors in a fair and equitable manner.

Investment Risk
Credit Risk
This risk arises if the ETBS issuer is unable to pay the coupon payment on the coupon date or the principal amount to the lender at maturity. However, DanaInfra Retail Sukuk is backed by the central government, thus deemed to have a low credit risk.

Market Risk
This is the risk of price fluctuations and is impacted by the demand and supply in the market.

Interest Rate Risk
It is important to note that price of fixed income have an inverse relationship to interest rates. Valuation of the ETBS may be affected by the changes in interest rates e.g. if the interest rate rises, ETBS prices will fall as investors may relocate their investment to capture a rise in interest rates available in other instruments, for example, in a bank deposit.

For more detailed infor on the offering, please check out the link below before investing:

Personal Opinion
This is suitable for low risk and long-term investor. If you only prefer investment/saving like Fixed Deposit (FD) with guaranteed income compared to the volatility in stocks market, then this investment may suit your appetite. The coupon of 4.23% p.a is deemed attractive compared to the current 12-month FD rate of 3.05%-3.90% p.a. Also, it is 47.1 bps higher than 7-year Malaysia Government Securities with yield of 3.759%  (as at 21 July 2014).

This may not suit short-term investors and investors who seek for high return and growth. Just to note in the stock market, Malaysia real estate investment trusts (MREITs) have dividend yield of 5%-7% p.a (as at 21 July 2014). However, it is not directly comparable to fixed income as MREITs have relatively higher risk since the dividend is not guaranteed and the payout will depend on the profitability of the company.

Note: You will receive the face value of Sukuk (RM100/unit) if you hold the Sukuk until maturity date. However, if you intend to sell before the maturity, the Sukuk may be trading at premium (above RM100/unit) or discount (below RM100/unit) depending on the supply/demand and interest rate market environment. Bond price tend to have inverse relationship with interest rate.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Terima Kasih - Thank You - 谢谢


Started to blog on 12 July and reached more than 300 views (excluding my own view for sure) on the 6th day.

Thank you very much 

Not a fantastic number, nothing much to boast. But a good milestone for me to be remembered to motivate myself to continue writing. I hope that you guys do benefit from what I shared.

There's alot that I would like to share with you guys, too many that I do not know where to start of. Maybe you could let me know what type of investor you are (beginner or experienced), what is you investment style and what type of topic you would like to view.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

[Investment Basic] Corporate Action: Share Buy-back


What is Share Buy-back 

  • Share buy-back allows the Company to purchase its own shares of up to 10% of its total issued and paid-up ordinary share capital.
  • The Share Buy-back also allows company either:
  1. cancel the shares so purchased; or
  2. retain the shares so purchased as treasury shares; or
  3. retain part of the shares so purchased as treasury shares and cancel the remainder; or
  4. distribute the treasury shares as dividends to shareholders and/or resell on the market of Bursa Securities and/or cancel all or part of them.

(Source: Securities Commission)


Rationale for Share Buy-back 



Tuesday, July 15, 2014

[Economics] Inflation in Malaysia

  2009-2013 historical annual inflation rate
  Source: The World Bank






















Inflation is a sustained increase in the cost of living or the average price level leading to a fall in the purchasing power of money. Based on the data above, Malaysia had successfully maintained low inflation rate over the 5 years compared to comparable countries in Asia. According to Bank Negara Malaysia data, the country's inflation barometer which is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) started moving up to 3.2% YoY in May 2014 compared to 2.1% in 2013. The government’s efforts to cut budget deficit and subsidy rationalisation has led to price pressure and cost-pushed inflation. Cost-push inflation arises when businesses increase prices to maintain or protect profit margins after experiencing a rise in their costs of production. 


Causes of Malaysia inflation (May 2014)

Contribution factors to changes in CPI

   Annual % price changes in the main groups of the CPI sorted from high to low (May 2014)
  (
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia)

























  • The 3.2% increase YoY (May 2014) in the CPI was brought about by increases in the overall CPI of all the main groups except for Clothing and Footwear, Semi-Durable Goods, Communication and Durable Goods.
  • Alcoholic beverages & tobacco price rose the highest by 14.1% YoY was in line with the higher sin tax announced in Budget 2014 i.e 14% cigarette hike in excise duty. 
  • Apart from that, price of the main groups that rose above 4% YoY arre Transport, Restaurant & Hotel and Non-durable goods. 

Fuel hike

  • Foremost, RON95 petrol and diesel prices were raised by 10.5% and 11.1% respectively, from September 2013. Fuel prices were last hiked in July and December 2010, by a total 5.7%. 
  • In addition, there is a 20 sen price increase for RON97 petrol to RM2.90/litre effective Mar 2014. 
  • The fuel-price hikes had spillover effects on other goods and services, with some business operators already passing on their increased costs to consumers. This translates into transport price inflation to rise by 5.5% YoY in May 2014 .

Raise in electricity tariff

  • Further to that, the government announced that effective from January 2014, the average electricity tariff in Peninsular Malaysia will be increased by 4.99 sen/kWh or 14.9% from the current average of 33.54 sen/kWh to 38.53 sen/kWh. 
  • The hike in tariff is based on four components, which includes the pass-through of costs for three fuels which are natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and coal. 
  • The other component included in the tariff hike is the base tariff. Approximately 68% or 3.41 sen/kWh of the 4.99 sen/kWh hike is attributed to the price of imported LNG which is fixed at RM41.68/MMBtu. 

Increase in food price

  • Sugar is a controlled commodity in Malaysia. In 2014 Budget, the Government said it would stop subsidising sugar by 34 sen/kg. 
  • The existing price of sugar is RM2.50 per kg has raised to RM2.84. The move has caused cascading price hikes as shops are going to increase the price of drinks by at least 10 sen per glass. 
  • Also, food price inflation is expected to remain elevated due to festive demand, bad weather, ringgit weakness and spillover effects from previous price hikes.  
  • To compound that, the minimum wage rate of RM900 was implemented in 2013. 

Property price

  • Additional costs incurred to developers will be pass on to the property buyers due to increasing labour costs, utility bills, raw material costs and transportation costs. 
  • However, property price is expected to increase at a slower space as property cooling measure in place to curb speculation and excessive price growth. 

Inflation creates winners and losers, knowing who win and lose will allow you to make sound investment decision.

(Sources: The World Bank, Bank Negara Malaysia, Department of Statistics Malysia, The Star, The Edge)

Monday, July 14, 2014

[Inforgraphic] Analyzing Initial Public Offering (IPO)

An initial public offering (IPO) is the first sale of stock by a company to the public and listing to the stock exchange.

Everytime there's an announcement of IPO, the retail (public) investors will be rushing for the application and place most of their money in the IPO. Most often the public perceived that all IPOs are good investment with many upsides since it is the first day of listing. But this is not always the true case!  Whether the IPO is priced at 10sen, RM1, or RM10 doesn't determine whether the valuation is cheap or expensive. IPO can be good or bad depending on the company position, valuation, financial, industry, intention of listing, and structure of the IPO.

Below are the inforgraphic on the key points that investors should analyze and understand before investing in an IPO, which can be obtain from the Prospectus. Always ask your broker for the IPO Prospectus (it's free) or retrieved it online from Bursa Malaysia. Yes it is a very thick book but it is definitely very useful information to evaluate an IPO.





















*Click on the image to enlarge.

Stay tune, I will be explaining and blogging on the key points and how to make good use of the IPO prospectus soon.


Be a sound investor, be a diligent investor.

Sunday, July 13, 2014

[Economics] Curbing Rising Household Debt


Capping tenure

To contain the rise of household debt which reached 82.9% of GDP, BNM has capped the tenure of personal loans and property loans. The central bank announced a slew of measures aimed at reinforcing responsible lending practices and combating surging household debt. These include shortening the personal financing tenure to a maximum period of 10 years and capping the maximum tenure for residential and non-residential property financing at 35 years. 

Prohibiting pre-approved financing

In a move to curb spiralling household debt, BNM also announced a set of measures including pulling the brakes on pre-approved loans by housing developers, a feature which has allowed many Malaysians to buy properties they could not really afford on their wages. It has also banned the offering of pre-approved personal financing products which is expected to help keep a lid on the debt binge at the household level. 

The central bank has also prohibited the offering of pre-approved personal financing products, such as unsolicited pre-approved credit cards. An unsolicited credit card limit increase offer which is the offer of a specified increase in the credit limit made to a current credit card customer. Accepting the offer is usually a very simple process and in most cases does not require the consumer to provide any financial information. 

Curbing DIBS and ICS

Due to the strong house-price appreciation in recent years leading to high mortgage loan, there have been numerous calls for the government to clamp down on speculation. In November 2013, BNM issued two guidelines to banks tightening lending practices. These include curbs to Developer Interest Bearing Schemes (DIBS) and enforcement of stricter Loan-to-Value ratio calculation. Interest Capitalization Scheme (ICS) is a type of scheme where interest costs are capitalized and built into the sale price instead of being paid by the borrower as they are incurred. The most popular type of ICS in Malaysia is the DIBS where during the construction period, the developer instead of buyer pays for any interest incurred on the mortgage loan until construction is completed. To offer DIBS, developers include the cost of interest payments into their launch prices. As a result, the future cost of owning the property are inclusive of retail price and interest costs, becomes the advertised retail price, which is higher than would have been without DIBS. Since property prices are set at the extremes, this creates upward pressure on the prices of surrounding properties and higher mortgage loan. Moving into 2014, BNM will disallow banks from offering financing to any projects that offer any form of Interest Capitalization Schemes to avoid speculation and property bubble. 

Responsible Finance Guideline

Also earlier in 2012, BNM has implemented The Responsible Finance Guideline to will help borrowers to engage debt management in a more pro-active manner and negate the Non-Performing Loans. Propsective loan borrower will be assessed based on net income basis instead of gross income, after deducting statutory deductions for tax and EPF and all other debt obligations such as car loan, other housing loan and credit cards). The Net Income is effectively the take-home pay that represents the income available to the borrower to settle his debt obligations as well as the cost of living.  Also, the credit assessment will disregard one-off sources of income such as annual discretionary bonus to arrive at a more prudent credit assessment. 

Increasing RPGT

In Malaysia, real property gains tax (RPGT) is imposed with the intention to curb property speculations. Accordance with the Budget 2014 announcement, the rates for RPGT has been increased to 30% from 15% in 2013. Government’s reason for the hike is mainly to reduce speculative activities on housing prices and real estate market. Government believes that hiking up RPGT enable the citizen to purchase affordable new houses. However in long term, hike in RPGT rates will slow down the sales of the secondary markets (sub-sales) and also might reduce property investments by local and foreign property investors. 

Prudent debt service ratio

In addition to the above measures, the key credit providers especially banks are required to observe prudent debt service ratios in their credit assessment to ensure households have sufficient financial buffers to protect them against rising costs and unexpected adverse events. Households who have the financial capacity to take on borrowings will continue to enjoy access to financing. To enhance responsible debt management by households, BNM will intensify its efforts in financial education to all segments of society including young and first time borrowers from financial institutions.

To conclude, the concern over household debt has caught the attention of the authorities in taking relevant action. The level of debt continues to rise following low cost of fund and rising consumption of household. At high level of debt, Malaysia is at vulnerable to unemployment, income reduction, interest rate increase and slowing economy growth. Monetary measures and regulation will be playing important role in curbing this rising household debt. 

(Sources: Department of Statistics Malaysia, The Star, The Edge, Bernama and various research reports)

Saturday, July 12, 2014

[Economic] Debate on Malaysia GST

Malaysia is set to introduce the goods and services tax (GST) at 6% from 1st April 2015, announced by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak for 2014 Budget which will replace the current Sales and Service Tax (SST) that in total could reach up to 16%. There are ongoing debates for and against the proposed GST as it caused consternation among Malaysians with many unsure of how the consumption tax is going to affect their lives. 


For GST


Raise Government Revenue, Reduce Budget Deficit

According to CIMB Research, the proposed GST rate of 6% is estimated to raise additional federal government revenue of RM11 to RM12 billion in 2015. The broadening tax revenue base, accompanied by other fiscal reforms, including subsidy rationalisation and cost-saving initiatives, will put Malaysia’s budget deficit and debt on a firm downward trajectory. This will strengthen the country's fiscal sustainability and bodes well for Malaysia's credit rating.

Powerful fiscal tool

Secondly, the GST is widely regarded as a powerful tool to enhance fiscal revenue buoyancy as it is a broad-based consumption tax. According to The Star newspaper, more than 160 countries in the world, including seven ASEAN countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) have implemented GST or value-added tax (VAT), at rates of 5-27%. The idea was to replace it with the value added GST, meant to be a more comprehensive, efficient, transparent and effective taxation system for tax compliance. 

Over-reliant on Petroleum and Corporate Taxes

Moreover, Malaysia currently draws its tax revenue from petroleum and corporate taxes. However, this is cyclical and dependent on global commodity prices. On top of that, resources like petroleum are a finite resource. When the oil wells run dry, so will the revenue from tax. The GST is a more stable tax income that minimises the impact of economic events. When a recession happens, the GST still provides a stable income for the nation and therefore provide opportunities to boost the economy. 

Consumption indicator, stable tax income

GST being an indicator of local consumption is a better reflection of the economic state of a country at any point in time as local consumption is part of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) computation of a national economy. It follows that whatever the Government makes at any point in time through GST will very much be dependent on the purchasing strength of its populace. The GST is a more stable tax income that minimises the impact of economic events. When a recession happens, the GST still provides a stable income for the nation and therefore provide opportunities to boost the economy. 

Eliminate double taxation under SST

Also, there are several inherent weaknesses in the current sales tax and services tax such as double taxation, tax embedded in goods exported and transfer pricing issues. The introduction of GST eliminates double taxation under SST. Consumers will pay fairer prices for most goods and services compared to SST as the GST captured tax at every stage from downstream to upstream, unlike the sales and service tax which brought about a compounding effect as it went down the value chain. 

Reduction in Corporate Tax

Furthermore, midsized and large firms may enjoy some cost savings if the GST is accompanied by a cut in corporate tax rate. The 2014 Budget proposed a 1% reduction in corporate income tax rate to 24% from 25% while that of SME will be reduced by 1% to 19% from 20% from year assessment 2016. However, they need to plan carefully for the GST implementation to avoid possible cashflow deficits as the supplier, manufacturer, wholesaler or retailer will have to pay GST on his business purchases despite claiming input tax. To help ease cashflows and the liquidity needs of companies, the government will set up a GST refund fund to escalate the refund process. 

Increase export competitiveness

Besides, the exports of goods and services will be zero-rated to preserve competitiveness. This will strengthen Malaysia’s export industry, helping the country progress even further. The additional export revenue will boost the country’s economic growth and the export revenue is expected to increase by 0.5% within the first year of GST implementation. Also, small and medium enterprises (SME) will not be charged GST as the threshold for the purpose of GST registration is set at annual sales of RM500,000.

Against GST


Potential hike in inflation

The biggest concern about GST is its potential cascading effects on overall consumer inflation. For Malaysia, the proposed GST rate of 6% is expected to raise consumer prices by about 2%s with food and beverages, healthcare, transportation, recreation and culture, and restaurant and hotels seeing the most significant hikes of 1-4%.

Longer list of taxable item

Another concern is that under the GST everything is taxable unless exempted, unlike under SST wherein everything is exempted unless taxable. In the GST negative list system, all goods and services not in the "Exempted and Zero-Rated" categories, are taxable. While in the older system of SST, all sales and services are not taxable except what have been listed as taxable. Thus, the citizens are to be taxed for all goods and services, which were not taxed under the existing SST. The taxable goods and services will be a lot longer list and would only be made known when the Gazette is released by the Minister. 

Fear of raise in GST rate 

Malaysia’s proposed GST rate of 6% is the lowest in the region where many countries have a 10% value added tax. There is fear that the rate of 6% GST seems low and the government has the power to increase the percentage up to 15% to increase the revenue. A raise of this rate can be found necessary in the future to gain more income. So there is a fear that in the end there will be higher taxes on more products.

Timing and readiness for GST

Also, there is concern on the readiness of the citizen to accept and take up the burden of GST. However it is noted that there will never be a good time to implement tax reforms. Based on economists’ consensus, the current economic environment of stable growth is conducive to the introduction of a relatively reasonable GST rate. A substantial dampening effect is not expected on consumer spending or a significant inflationary impact. There are concerns about the tax burden on the low income group, but even today the Sales and Service tax is not a progressive tax. 

Fairness of GST

Nonetheless, proponents of GST argue that contrary to popular belief, the rich will not be necessarily better off as the more they consume, the more they will have to pay. The poor, however, will be protected because essential goods such as sugar, flour and rice will be exempted from GST. Moreover, the impact of GST on the poor will be cushioned by various cash-aid schemes such as BR1M (1Malaysia People's Aid) introduced by the Government. 

Redistribution of revenue and government leakages

Last but not least, there are also fear that the redistribution of the revenue towards the citizen won’t happen. Some people see GST as a way to cover up the leakages and flaws of the current financial position of the government, some think that first the government should improve the procedure for the current taxes and fight corruption instead of replacing SST by a GST what in their opinion will be implemented without the credit system in a not efficient way what eventually will result in a heavier tax on all levels of the production.

In a nutshell, the GST will provide a more stable, predictable and efficient source of revenue and is a viable tax reform to enhance the government's fiscal flexibility. The key is to set a clear and credible roadmap for GST implementation to ensure its smooth execution. Adequate engagement with all stakeholders, public education and raising awareness of the tax will contribute to better management of the new tax. However, the problem of the budget deficit may not be solved by GST alone, the Government of Malaysia should show commitment to stop to all the leakage. 


(Sources: GST Official Website, PWC, The Star, The Edge, Malaysian Insider, News Strait Time, Various Research Reports, Jents Debruyne (Belgian Embassy) and various news portal)

Contact Me

Name

Email *

Message *