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Showing posts with label Budget 2014. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Budget 2014. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

[Economics] Inflation in Malaysia

  2009-2013 historical annual inflation rate
  Source: The World Bank






















Inflation is a sustained increase in the cost of living or the average price level leading to a fall in the purchasing power of money. Based on the data above, Malaysia had successfully maintained low inflation rate over the 5 years compared to comparable countries in Asia. According to Bank Negara Malaysia data, the country's inflation barometer which is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) started moving up to 3.2% YoY in May 2014 compared to 2.1% in 2013. The government’s efforts to cut budget deficit and subsidy rationalisation has led to price pressure and cost-pushed inflation. Cost-push inflation arises when businesses increase prices to maintain or protect profit margins after experiencing a rise in their costs of production. 


Causes of Malaysia inflation (May 2014)

Contribution factors to changes in CPI

   Annual % price changes in the main groups of the CPI sorted from high to low (May 2014)
  (
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia)

























  • The 3.2% increase YoY (May 2014) in the CPI was brought about by increases in the overall CPI of all the main groups except for Clothing and Footwear, Semi-Durable Goods, Communication and Durable Goods.
  • Alcoholic beverages & tobacco price rose the highest by 14.1% YoY was in line with the higher sin tax announced in Budget 2014 i.e 14% cigarette hike in excise duty. 
  • Apart from that, price of the main groups that rose above 4% YoY arre Transport, Restaurant & Hotel and Non-durable goods. 

Fuel hike

  • Foremost, RON95 petrol and diesel prices were raised by 10.5% and 11.1% respectively, from September 2013. Fuel prices were last hiked in July and December 2010, by a total 5.7%. 
  • In addition, there is a 20 sen price increase for RON97 petrol to RM2.90/litre effective Mar 2014. 
  • The fuel-price hikes had spillover effects on other goods and services, with some business operators already passing on their increased costs to consumers. This translates into transport price inflation to rise by 5.5% YoY in May 2014 .

Raise in electricity tariff

  • Further to that, the government announced that effective from January 2014, the average electricity tariff in Peninsular Malaysia will be increased by 4.99 sen/kWh or 14.9% from the current average of 33.54 sen/kWh to 38.53 sen/kWh. 
  • The hike in tariff is based on four components, which includes the pass-through of costs for three fuels which are natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and coal. 
  • The other component included in the tariff hike is the base tariff. Approximately 68% or 3.41 sen/kWh of the 4.99 sen/kWh hike is attributed to the price of imported LNG which is fixed at RM41.68/MMBtu. 

Increase in food price

  • Sugar is a controlled commodity in Malaysia. In 2014 Budget, the Government said it would stop subsidising sugar by 34 sen/kg. 
  • The existing price of sugar is RM2.50 per kg has raised to RM2.84. The move has caused cascading price hikes as shops are going to increase the price of drinks by at least 10 sen per glass. 
  • Also, food price inflation is expected to remain elevated due to festive demand, bad weather, ringgit weakness and spillover effects from previous price hikes.  
  • To compound that, the minimum wage rate of RM900 was implemented in 2013. 

Property price

  • Additional costs incurred to developers will be pass on to the property buyers due to increasing labour costs, utility bills, raw material costs and transportation costs. 
  • However, property price is expected to increase at a slower space as property cooling measure in place to curb speculation and excessive price growth. 

Inflation creates winners and losers, knowing who win and lose will allow you to make sound investment decision.

(Sources: The World Bank, Bank Negara Malaysia, Department of Statistics Malysia, The Star, The Edge)

Saturday, July 12, 2014

[Economic] Debate on Malaysia GST

Malaysia is set to introduce the goods and services tax (GST) at 6% from 1st April 2015, announced by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak for 2014 Budget which will replace the current Sales and Service Tax (SST) that in total could reach up to 16%. There are ongoing debates for and against the proposed GST as it caused consternation among Malaysians with many unsure of how the consumption tax is going to affect their lives. 


For GST


Raise Government Revenue, Reduce Budget Deficit

According to CIMB Research, the proposed GST rate of 6% is estimated to raise additional federal government revenue of RM11 to RM12 billion in 2015. The broadening tax revenue base, accompanied by other fiscal reforms, including subsidy rationalisation and cost-saving initiatives, will put Malaysia’s budget deficit and debt on a firm downward trajectory. This will strengthen the country's fiscal sustainability and bodes well for Malaysia's credit rating.

Powerful fiscal tool

Secondly, the GST is widely regarded as a powerful tool to enhance fiscal revenue buoyancy as it is a broad-based consumption tax. According to The Star newspaper, more than 160 countries in the world, including seven ASEAN countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) have implemented GST or value-added tax (VAT), at rates of 5-27%. The idea was to replace it with the value added GST, meant to be a more comprehensive, efficient, transparent and effective taxation system for tax compliance. 

Over-reliant on Petroleum and Corporate Taxes

Moreover, Malaysia currently draws its tax revenue from petroleum and corporate taxes. However, this is cyclical and dependent on global commodity prices. On top of that, resources like petroleum are a finite resource. When the oil wells run dry, so will the revenue from tax. The GST is a more stable tax income that minimises the impact of economic events. When a recession happens, the GST still provides a stable income for the nation and therefore provide opportunities to boost the economy. 

Consumption indicator, stable tax income

GST being an indicator of local consumption is a better reflection of the economic state of a country at any point in time as local consumption is part of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) computation of a national economy. It follows that whatever the Government makes at any point in time through GST will very much be dependent on the purchasing strength of its populace. The GST is a more stable tax income that minimises the impact of economic events. When a recession happens, the GST still provides a stable income for the nation and therefore provide opportunities to boost the economy. 

Eliminate double taxation under SST

Also, there are several inherent weaknesses in the current sales tax and services tax such as double taxation, tax embedded in goods exported and transfer pricing issues. The introduction of GST eliminates double taxation under SST. Consumers will pay fairer prices for most goods and services compared to SST as the GST captured tax at every stage from downstream to upstream, unlike the sales and service tax which brought about a compounding effect as it went down the value chain. 

Reduction in Corporate Tax

Furthermore, midsized and large firms may enjoy some cost savings if the GST is accompanied by a cut in corporate tax rate. The 2014 Budget proposed a 1% reduction in corporate income tax rate to 24% from 25% while that of SME will be reduced by 1% to 19% from 20% from year assessment 2016. However, they need to plan carefully for the GST implementation to avoid possible cashflow deficits as the supplier, manufacturer, wholesaler or retailer will have to pay GST on his business purchases despite claiming input tax. To help ease cashflows and the liquidity needs of companies, the government will set up a GST refund fund to escalate the refund process. 

Increase export competitiveness

Besides, the exports of goods and services will be zero-rated to preserve competitiveness. This will strengthen Malaysia’s export industry, helping the country progress even further. The additional export revenue will boost the country’s economic growth and the export revenue is expected to increase by 0.5% within the first year of GST implementation. Also, small and medium enterprises (SME) will not be charged GST as the threshold for the purpose of GST registration is set at annual sales of RM500,000.

Against GST


Potential hike in inflation

The biggest concern about GST is its potential cascading effects on overall consumer inflation. For Malaysia, the proposed GST rate of 6% is expected to raise consumer prices by about 2%s with food and beverages, healthcare, transportation, recreation and culture, and restaurant and hotels seeing the most significant hikes of 1-4%.

Longer list of taxable item

Another concern is that under the GST everything is taxable unless exempted, unlike under SST wherein everything is exempted unless taxable. In the GST negative list system, all goods and services not in the "Exempted and Zero-Rated" categories, are taxable. While in the older system of SST, all sales and services are not taxable except what have been listed as taxable. Thus, the citizens are to be taxed for all goods and services, which were not taxed under the existing SST. The taxable goods and services will be a lot longer list and would only be made known when the Gazette is released by the Minister. 

Fear of raise in GST rate 

Malaysia’s proposed GST rate of 6% is the lowest in the region where many countries have a 10% value added tax. There is fear that the rate of 6% GST seems low and the government has the power to increase the percentage up to 15% to increase the revenue. A raise of this rate can be found necessary in the future to gain more income. So there is a fear that in the end there will be higher taxes on more products.

Timing and readiness for GST

Also, there is concern on the readiness of the citizen to accept and take up the burden of GST. However it is noted that there will never be a good time to implement tax reforms. Based on economists’ consensus, the current economic environment of stable growth is conducive to the introduction of a relatively reasonable GST rate. A substantial dampening effect is not expected on consumer spending or a significant inflationary impact. There are concerns about the tax burden on the low income group, but even today the Sales and Service tax is not a progressive tax. 

Fairness of GST

Nonetheless, proponents of GST argue that contrary to popular belief, the rich will not be necessarily better off as the more they consume, the more they will have to pay. The poor, however, will be protected because essential goods such as sugar, flour and rice will be exempted from GST. Moreover, the impact of GST on the poor will be cushioned by various cash-aid schemes such as BR1M (1Malaysia People's Aid) introduced by the Government. 

Redistribution of revenue and government leakages

Last but not least, there are also fear that the redistribution of the revenue towards the citizen won’t happen. Some people see GST as a way to cover up the leakages and flaws of the current financial position of the government, some think that first the government should improve the procedure for the current taxes and fight corruption instead of replacing SST by a GST what in their opinion will be implemented without the credit system in a not efficient way what eventually will result in a heavier tax on all levels of the production.

In a nutshell, the GST will provide a more stable, predictable and efficient source of revenue and is a viable tax reform to enhance the government's fiscal flexibility. The key is to set a clear and credible roadmap for GST implementation to ensure its smooth execution. Adequate engagement with all stakeholders, public education and raising awareness of the tax will contribute to better management of the new tax. However, the problem of the budget deficit may not be solved by GST alone, the Government of Malaysia should show commitment to stop to all the leakage. 


(Sources: GST Official Website, PWC, The Star, The Edge, Malaysian Insider, News Strait Time, Various Research Reports, Jents Debruyne (Belgian Embassy) and various news portal)

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